{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "generated_utc": "2026-09-18T23:25:06+00:00",
  "as_of": {
    "price": "2026-09-18",
    "weather": "2026-09-12",
    "fx": "2026-09-18"
  },
  "regime": {
    "label": "crisis",
    "posture": "crisis",
    "risk_multiplier": 0.4,
    "sessions_in_regime": 1
  },
  "market": {
    "chg_1w": -0.11621,
    "chg_1m": -0.22893,
    "series": "ICE arabica benchmark (robusta series in assembly)"
  },
  "growing_conditions": {
    "location": "Buon Ma Thuot, Dak Lak, Vietnam (12.68N, 108.04E)",
    "rain_anom_30d_z": 1.553,
    "dry_frac_30d": 0.033
  },
  "crop": {
    "stage": "fruit filling",
    "stage_note": "peak monsoon: moisture normally ample, so a deficit is unusual but damaging",
    "stress_index": 0.155,
    "stress_band": "low",
    "method": "30-day rainfall anomaly weighted by the Dak Lak robusta phenology calendar (drought-sensitive flowering/fruit-set, wetness-sensitive harvest)"
  },
  "farm_gate": null,
  "forecast": {
    "source": "Open-Meteo forecast model",
    "issued": "2026-09-18",
    "window": [
      "2026-09-18",
      "2026-10-01"
    ],
    "expected_rain_mm": 160.7,
    "seasonal_norm_mm": 169.9,
    "anom_z": -0.12,
    "projected_stress": 0.059,
    "projected_band": "low",
    "note": "forward-looking model output; verified against realized rainfall in the public track record as windows close"
  },
  "fx": {
    "brl_usd_chg_21d": -0.00668
  },
  "brief": "Coffee futures closed at 277\u00a2/lb \u2014 down 11.6% on the week and down 22.9% on the month. The regime model reads the market as crisis and has for 1 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.6\u03c3) \u2014 favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-0.7%) \u2014 a neutral currency backdrop. Looking ahead: the 14-day forecast calls for 161 mm of rain in the robusta belt against a 170 mm seasonal norm (-0.1\u03c3) \u2014 projected crop stress: low (Open-Meteo forecast model, issued 2026-09-18; skill scored publicly as windows close).",
  "attribution": "Regime labels, risk multipliers and anomalies computed by ascent-agri (github.com/ScottDongKhang/ascent-agri). Underlying inputs: Yahoo Finance, Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 (derived data); attribution required",
  "docs": "https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/#data"
}