277¢/lb · -11.6% on the week ·
-22.9% on the month
Growing belt
30-day rainfall anomaly
+1.6σ at Buon Ma Thuot ·
crop stage: fruit filling · stress: low
(weather through 2026-09-12)
Next 14 days
161 mm expected vs
170 mm norm (-0.1σ) — projected stress:
low(Open-Meteo forecast, issued 2026-09-18)
Track record
56 entries · 54 scored days (2026-06-25 → 2026-09-18) · strategy +0.11% vs buy-and-hold -10.83% · mean exposure 0.04 Forecast verification: 40/54 windows closed · forecast MAE 27.9mm vs climatology 39.7mm · skill +0.30 · bias -5.8mm · band hit rate 88%
Coffee futures closed at 277¢/lb — down 11.6% on the week and down 22.9% on the month. The regime model reads the market as crisis and has for 1 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.6σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-0.7%) — a neutral currency backdrop. Looking ahead: the 14-day forecast calls for 161 mm of rain in the robusta belt against a 170 mm seasonal norm (-0.1σ) — projected crop stress: low (Open-Meteo forecast model, issued 2026-09-18; skill scored publicly as windows close).