30-day rainfall anomaly
-0.4σ at Buon Ma Thuot ·
crop stage: maturation & harvest · stress: low
(weather through 2026-11-01)
Next 14 days
38 mm expected vs
85 mm norm (-1.0σ) — projected stress:
low(Open-Meteo forecast, issued 2026-11-07)
Track record
91 entries · 89 scored days (2026-06-25 → 2026-11-06) · strategy +0.12% vs buy-and-hold -9.88% · mean exposure 0.02 Forecast verification: 72/85 windows closed · forecast MAE 30.1mm vs climatology 40.9mm · skill +0.26 · bias -1.5mm · band hit rate 92%
Coffee futures closed at 280¢/lb — down 2.5% on the week and down 3.1% on the month. The regime model reads the market as crisis and has for 38 sessions. Growing conditions look unremarkable: Central Highlands rainfall is near its seasonal norm (-0.4σ). The crop is in its maturation & harvest window, and stage-weighted stress is low. A weakening Brazilian real (+9.6% in a month) raises producers' local-currency revenue per bag — added selling pressure. Looking ahead: the 14-day forecast calls for 38 mm of rain in the robusta belt against a 85 mm seasonal norm (-1.0σ) — projected crop stress: low (Open-Meteo forecast model, issued 2026-11-07; skill scored publicly as windows close).