https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ Daily model-driven read on coffee markets and Vietnamese Central Highlands growing conditions. Fri, 18 Sep 2026 23:25:06 +0000 https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-18 Fri, 18 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 277¢/lb — down 11.6% on the week and down 22.9% on the month. The regime model reads the market as crisis and has for 1 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.6σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-0.7%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-17 Thu, 17 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 291¢/lb — down 7.8% on the week and down 20.0% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 52 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.6σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-1.2%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-16 Wed, 16 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 296¢/lb — down 7.3% on the week and down 14.3% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 51 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.6σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-1.1%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-15 Tue, 15 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 300¢/lb — down 5.9% on the week and down 11.4% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 50 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.6σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-1.6%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-14 Mon, 14 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 307¢/lb — down 5.2% on the week and down 7.7% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 49 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.6σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-1.7%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-11 Fri, 11 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 314¢/lb — down 3.3% on the week and down 7.8% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 48 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.4σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-1.8%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-10 Thu, 10 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 315¢/lb — down 4.0% on the week and down 6.1% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 47 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.4σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-1.4%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-09 Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 319¢/lb — down 6.7% on the week and down 3.9% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 46 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.3σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-0.4%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-08 Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 318¢/lb — down 7.4% on the week and down 5.1% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 45 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.1σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (+0.9%) — a neutral currency backdrop. https://scottdongkhang.github.io/ascent-agri/ ascent-agri-2026-09-04 Fri, 04 Sep 2026 21:30:00 +0000 Coffee futures closed at 324¢/lb — down 6.2% on the week and up 0.8% on the month. The regime model reads the market as late-cycle (selective posture) and has for 44 sessions. Rainfall in the Central Highlands is running above its seasonal norm (+1.0σ) — favorable moisture for the robusta belt. The crop is in its fruit filling window, and stage-weighted stress is low. The Brazilian real is little changed on the month (-0.7%) — a neutral currency backdrop.